Higher air fares will linger for a period “longer than what many people think”, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt oil exports from the Middle East, said the global airline body on June 7.

Speaking at an industry outlook briefing focusing on the energy crisis, the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) senior vice-president for sustainability and chief economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, said this is because all the elements of a “refining crisis” were already present before the Middle East conflict broke out.

The “very unevenly distributed” refining capacity around the world means that certain regions such as Europe are more dependent on fuel imports, particularly those from the Gulf region, she added.

“Everybody will continue to struggle with this for a long time, and I predict that prices will be higher...

It will take a long time before we get back to the US$60 per barrel of brent that we had in January,” said Thomsen at IATA’s annual general meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

According to IATA’s latest figures, jet fuel prices are forecast to reach US$152 (S$196.2) per barrel in 2026, up from less than US$100 per barrel in 2025.

In the week ending May 29, average jet fuel prices stood at US$141.64 per barrel.

On how much longer airlines would hike airfares, Thomsen said they will increase fares to an extent that they can cover costs and not go bust.

Citing historical data, she noted that airlines typically absorb half of jet fuel price increases on their slim profit margins, while passing on the other half to passengers in the form of higher ticket prices.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) said in May it would not raise airfares to the extent that it passes the full increase in fuel costs on to passengers.

The SIA Group noted that while the national carrier and its budget arm Scoot had raised fares across their network, “the adjustments do not fully offset the rise in the price of jet fuel”.

In a separate media briefing on jet fuel on the second day of IATA’s annual general meeting, Eleanor Budds, research director of....