By Craig Stirling The cumulative global impact of seven weeks of war in the West Asia will begin to emerge in the coming week, in a second round of business surveys from multiple countries.

Whether the twin blows affecting growth and inflation seen in purchasing manager indexes after the first month of the Iran conflict intensified during month two will be a key focus.

The initial take for April in economies from Australia to the US will be published on Thursday.

Among those covered by Bloomberg forecasts, indexes in Germany, France, the euro zone and the UK are all anticipated to show broad deterioration, while the American indicators are seen little changed.

Ultimately, the numbers may point to the degree that stagflation is lurking.

That ominous term — evoking the noxious mix of surging prices and stalling growth of the 1970s — was cited by Chris Williamson, chief business economist at PMI-compiler S&P Global, when summing up risks highlighted by the overall global measure in March.

The survey numbers follow a week of bleak stock-taking in Washington, where finance chiefs were warned by the International Monetary Fund of a range of potential outcomes that included a near-recession for the world.

Notwithstanding the current West Asia ceasefire, the damage to growth and inflation can’t be easily undone.

“Even if the war ends tomorrow, it would take quite some time for the recovery to kick in,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg Television.

“The impact is already baked in.” For all the gloom, multiple policymakers remain cautious about how to respond.

European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane described how he and his colleagues may treat reports such as the PMIs when they set interest rates later this month.

“We will have a rich set of survey data,” Lane said in Washington.

“Of course, the people who are answering those surveys are looking at the same world we are looking at.” And for now, not many will have a decisive idea about what’s going to happen, he added.

ECB officials will also get French business confidence on Thursday and Germany’s closely watched Ifo business climate gauge on Friday.

Their Federal Reserve peers will see the University of Michigan’s sentiment index, also at the end of the week.

But as Georgieva warned, even the most holistic analysis of the global economy by policymakers has its limits for now.

“We all need to learn to operate in an environment of high and permanent uncertainty,” she said.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...“While a deal appears to be in sight that may bring an end to the current round of US-Iran hostilities and relief to energy markets, it’s unlikely to result in a full or lasting peace.

Israel does not appear party to negotiations, and continues to regard Iran as a threat.

Trust between the US and Iran remains low and already there appears to be different interpretations of key terms (e.g., Hormuz), all pointing to enduring tensions.” —Jennifer Welch and Adam Farrar Elsewhere, a possible war-driven pickup in inflation numbers from Canada to the UK to South Africa, plus interest-rate decisions from Turkey to Indonesia, may be among the highlights.

US and Canada The week’s marquee US economic data release will be retail sales.

Economists project a sizable jump in overall sales for March, largely due to sharply increased spending on gasoline.

The figures aren’t adjusted for price changes, and drivers experienced costlier fill-ups because of the Iran war.

Excluding gasoline and autos, however, economists anticipate Tuesday’s report will signal more tepid demand as high fuel costs prompted budget-constrained consumers to squeeze spending on other things.

While the average price of gas has declined since earlier this month, it remains around $4 a gallon.

S&P Global’s preliminary April PMIs come on Thursday, followed a day later by the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April.

The preliminary reading set a record low.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking committee on Tuesday in what may be the most anticipated confirmation hearing for a Fed chair nominee in decades.

Investors will listen closely for how Warsh conceives of monetary policy that hews to President Donald Trump’s demands for lower interest rates while not alarming traders still wary of inflation, especially amid a war-driven oil price shock.

Looking north, economists expect Canada’s headline inflation to have jumped....